Unemployment on the up; Retail trade down.

A private survey on unemployment from Roy Morgan estimates 10.9 per cent of the Australian workforce was unemployed in January 2013, up 1.3% over the past month and now sitting at the highest rate since January 2002.

In other news, Retail trade figures released by the RBA show Christmas trading was poor in 2012 with December retail spending falling a seasonally adjusted 0.2%. Economists had expected a 0.3% rise.

Retail spending fell in each of the three consecutive months in the lead up to Christmas.

» New Year Begins with Unemployment up 1.3% to 10.9% with record 2.4 million australians either unemployed or under-employed
– Roy Morgan Research, 6th February 2013.
» 8501.0 – Retail Trade, Australia, Dec 2012 – Australian Bureau of Statistics, 6th February 2013.


  1. Since the start of 2010, there is a clear trend in the Roy Morgan figures where unemployment is heading – up.

    Why are the ABS figures essentially flat over the same period?

  2. This continues to confirm the GFC landed in AUS quite some time ago.

    Unless you specifically lost your job, hours or are self employed will you likely have felt the fall out so far.

    Low interest rates have buffered the Aussie speculator so far. There is a limit to how long they are able to hold loss making assets.

    Reminds me of famous speeches about ‘contagion’.

  3. It’s ok, we’ll all simply get richer as house prices go up, just like we’ve been doing! If it ain’t broke…!

  4. Peter isnt it just that ABS calculates in a totally unrealistic way? Like 1 hour per week is classed as employed and a range of other misleading interpretations on their data.

  5. It is called Propaganda my friend.
    Why do you think the AFL and NRL are in the news right now? Stirring interest again in the codes.

    A well amanged economy in my opinion – keeps the masses watching the footy/ cricket while our wealth is stolen.

    Welcome to the UN state Australia bud !

  6. This is a trend that has been going on for quite some time. From 2008, unemployment is increasing, retail has been flogged.

    My opinion of the Roy Morgan polls, they are a bit conservative, that’s OK though. I can’t speak with certainty, I will speak anyway. RM methodology is similar to the ABS’s Labour Force Survey methodology, but uses different definitions for the survey parameters. Where the ABS uses the International standard of, 1 hour of work performed in the survey week is defined as employed, I THINK RM uses either 10 or 14 hours per week. If so, both measurement methods may be incorrect.

    Why nobody hits on CentreLink with a few demands in determining Unemployment is beyond me. Everyone seems to have some fantastic survey method and paramters.

    Ask about 4 questions, and define 1 hour in the survey week as employed.
    (ABS’s Labour Force Survey, International Standard)

    Similar to above, but ramp up the hours.
    (Roy Morgan)

    Use the above (ABS) and DON’T count how many account holders have CENTRELINK NEWSTART next to their deposit description to analyse ue.
    (Banks, their methodology when they state the unemployment rate)

    Repeat the ABS number, and claim independent analysis.
    (Real Estate industry’s methodology)

    Count Job Advertisments
    (ANZ and Seek.com)

    Just in case CentreLink gets hassled, they too have their definitions of unemployment.

    Except for Roy Morgan, all others agree on the number. That’s consensus for ya’. I think RM is correct on the trend though.

    Retail, since commercial premises have been vacated on mass, around 2009, and replaced with either coffee shops or Rub’n’Tugs, the only good news I’ve been hearing about reatil, is from the commercial media, or few business owners. Many want to ditch their shops.

  7. @Adelaide Web Design,

    It is not 1 hour per week. It is 1 hour in the week the survey is taken.

    That is, the question is not (something like), “do you work a least one hour per week?”, but rather more like, “did you work a least 1 hour in the past week?” That is the week one answered the survey.

    The Moon is made of green cheese alright!

  8. I went to the dead zone (Melb CBD) on the weekend first time in about a year the vacane shops were an eye opener. Quite in streets as well. Here we are as nation talking about AFL and NRL. Our economy is going to shit .

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